-
Re: rigged?
02/06I don't know, but it's universal. I've run a backgammon server for over a decade, and people insist that it must be rigged. (It's not.)
-
-
Re: rigged?
02/07I forget where this anecdote came from, but a mathematics professor teaching probability had an interesting experiment.
He'd assign half his class to flip coins and write down the sequence. He'd assign the other half to make up a 'random' sequence of heads and tails without flipping a coin.
He said it was always easy to pick out the hand-authored 'random' sequences. They had too little variance. You'd never see a run of five heads in a row, or five tails in a row or head/tail/head/tail repeated six times.
People do not appreciate variance. Funny thing about the "this site is rigged" thing is that it would be easy to prove if it was true. Just study the hand histories.
But I'm not immune. I can't help noticing, for example, that whenever I've got queens, someone's got kings. If I've got kings, they've got aces. Seems to happen a lot.
Seems to is the key. What I don't notice is how often people have kings and aces when I DON'T have queens of kings.
I think a good many people play in Matt Damon mode: if you're a good poker player, you NEVER lose a hand. If you lose a hand you "should have" won, you didn't fail, it's just that the other player is so bad you can't beat him (that's always confused me...why not play like him then?) or the game must be rigged.
I still think about the time I called a heads-up all-in push against an opponent I had well covered. I had 22 and he had AK. The 2s held up and he just fucking went to town on me.
How could you PLAY that? I HAD AK!!! 22 suxors d00d!!! And so on.
I resisted the urge to explain to him that
a) having him well covered meant that the tournament equity of beating him was much higher than the equity I'd lose for not beating him
b) 22 is ahead of any non pair
c) his minimum all-in hand, given his position, included mostly non-pairs
Instead, I just told him he was right. I suck. He should keep playing me.
Gung Hay Fat Choy everybody.
-J
-
-
-
-
Re: rigged?
02/07I tend to be suspicious about the "rigged" idea. AA is What about 70% ? Not from my experience at least on Pokerstars. It`s more like 20% and I`m NOT KIDDING!! I`ve played em hard, soft , whatever way you can dream of and 20% is all I`m getting. KK even worse!! In fact, Just last nite I`m in a Sunday Million Satellite, 12 seats available, 13 players left, I get KK in small blind, Blinds are 15k/30K , If I fold I have a chance of winning but with 6 and 7 at two tables and no promise that someone else will go out before me, I push with a good hand. BB calls with Q6 off. Board goes 5266Q. OMG is this for real, lol!!! Tournament over no seat, BTW, The hand just before, Guy flops quad 7`s to stay alive as the short stack. He beats pair of aces. May or may not be rigged but it seems when two hands are all in you always see the dramatic come from behind runner runner or A on the river. Too many times I say. Looking back to all the live tournaments I`ve played there is no comparison whatsoever to the stuff I see on Pokerstars.
P.S. Once got knocked out of two different tournaments on Pokerstars by straight flushes in the span of 5 minutes. I don`t know odds on that but I`m guessing they are HUGE!!
-
-
Re: rigged?
02/07This is selection bias. Aces tend to lose more often than you'd expect if you go all the way to showdown, because you're only 2 outs to improve and most opponents won't risk big bets on top pair, which is the best hand aces are likely to beat. Thus the only hands you're actually likely to SEE at showdown are the ones that have been improving or the ones you got all-in preflop.
You can't just count wins at showdown. You have to add in all the times your opponents fold preflop or on the flop or turn to get to 70%. Actually, that number will be a little off because your opponents will often fold hands that would have drawn out on you, but there you are.
Also consider that AA is 70% heads up, but against 3 or 4 opponents, it's not likely to win. It's the best hand at the table...you wouldn't pick another...but it's not likely to win because NO ONE is likely to win once there are several hands at play. Everyone has a small chance and you have a slightly bigger chance.
You can't count a multiway pot as a loser for purposes of getting to 70%. You have to count your heads up result against each player at the table. You might lose to one player but be ahead of the other two, which counts as one loss and two wins for statistical calculation. But, unfortunately, there's no consolation prize for having the second best hand.
Also, how big is your sample size? If you've only caught aces 10 times, I wouldn't be surprised if you lost 8 of those hands, especially if the loses happened on the river.
And "this one time I saw someone call my aces with 72 and the flop came 772" is not evidence of anything. I had a ridiculous 4-flush suck out with kings against someone's aces last week. I wasn't in collusion with anyone. He just got unlucky.
Every pattern of cards is just as likely as every other pattern of cards. MOST patterns of cards favor AA, but most patterns of cards also favor folding 72 before anyone sees what you have. It's only when you hit that folks see it.
It's a big poker lesson: do not fall in love with AA or KK. Get as big a commitment as you can as early as you can because the longer other players are choosing to stay in instead of folding, the less likely it is that you are ahead.
Another big poker lesson: do not favor the conspiracy theory for why you're losing. That won't help you win. If you are truly convinced that the game is rigged, stop playing, because there are only two possibilities:
a) you are right, in which case, why be a sucker?
b) you are wrong, in which case you have accepted an erroneous explanation for the outcome of poker hands and thus immunized yourself from improving your game -
-
Re: rigged?
02/07Jason,
I think that is a great explanation. It is still difficult to sit there with JJ, your opponent have KQ, and then he gets a queen and king on the table. -
-
Re: rigged?
02/07If that never happened, there would be no bad players at the table.
Poker is a game of edges and long term advantage. It matters little "when" a particular hand comes. You know JJ will beat KQ more than half the time, but not a hell of a lot more (what is it? 55% winner? PokerStove is at home :) )
But it is more than half, so if you run into players who call your JJ with their KQ all the time, you'll end up ahead but you will lose often.
"The Poker Mindset" has a great way of looking at this. Take time out of the equation. There is some population of poker hands that you will play in your life. JJ will be profitable against KQ preflop across that population, but many many times it will lose.
Think of these hands as people milling about in a room. 55 out of a hundred will give you a dollar when you greet them and 45 will take a dollar. Now, should you be walking through that room greeting people? Of course. Should you expect to hand out a lot of dollars? Yes, but you'll collect more. Would you jump at the chance to meet and greet everyone in that room? You should, yes. Does it matter if you run into 4 dollar-stealers in a row at any given time? No, because you know how the population lays. Moment to moment variance is only relevant to your bankroll.
The numbers are fixed and there and the laws of probability dictate (within a narrow margin) what they will be. It doesn't matter at all if you run into a winner or loser THIS TIME. All that matters is that you know whether a cohort of hands is good for you or bad for you. Avoid the bad, get big commitments on the good and keep your bankroll above the temporal variance.
Never let any particular hand affect your emotions if you can avoid it. But be scrupulously honest about whether you made a good decision or a bad one. Would you play the hand the same way again? A million times? Would that be a good idea? Are you sure?
Those are the only questions to ask. Not: how could he have gotten so lucky? People get lucky. If they didn't, they wouldn't play.
That's why no amateur has ever won the World Series of Chess. No luck involved.
-
-
-
Re: rigged?
02/07"AA is What about 70%"
It depends upon how you define the problem. It's 85% against one random hand. It's around 70% against two random hands, about 56% against four random hands, and about 33% against nine random hands. In other words, if you're in a 3-6 game where everybody sees every flop, your aces lose about two thirds of the time.
Those are showdown equities, of course.
-
-
Unsu...
Re: rigged?
02/07"Rigged by whom?"
If I knew that, I'd be too busy beating the shit out of him to post anything on tribe.
-
