Chances: You hold an ace in your hand...

topic posted Fri, March 14, 2008 - 2:57 PM by  Weirdo
What is the percentage of when you hold an ace in your hand and an ace flops, that your opponent also is holding an ace? I've read or seen it somewhere but don't remember.

Thanks!
posted by:
Weirdo
Illinois
  • Re: Chances: You hold an ace in your hand...

    Fri, March 14, 2008 - 3:58 PM
    Based on my casual observation, about 1 in 1 :)

    A = Chance you'll draw an ace: 1/13
    B = Chance your opponent will also draw an ace: 3/51
    C =Chance that the board will also flop an ace: 1-( (48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48) )

    Probability = A*B*C.

    That's the odds of the whole magilla happening without any cards having yet been dealt.

    If you give that you have an ace and the board flops an ace, that's 5 cards out of 52 leaving 47. Assuming you don't have AA and the board only flops one A, then the chance that your opponent holds one of the remaining aces is 1-(45/47)*(44/46).

    Of course, if your opponent gives you any reasonable action with an A on the flop, the practical chances that he has either an ace or has AA beat are pretty high :)

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